Mesoscale Discussion 0869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

   Areas affected...Far east Texas and northern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

   Valid 072008Z - 072215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Recent intensification has occurred with a line of
   thunderstorms in portions of northwest/west-central Louisiana. The
   downstream environment will continue to support isolated to
   widely-scattered damaging wind gusts. As shear decreases to the
   east, some weakening may occur later this afternoon. The need for
   additional watches is uncertain. Trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown and increase in 50 dBZ
   cores on 7 and 9 km MRMS CAPPI data with the convective line
   entering northwestern Louisiana. This is coincident with storm
   encountering an increasingly unstable airmass with temperatures in
   the mid/upper 80s F and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Wind gusts
   thus far have been sub-severe over the past couple of hours.
   Effective shear is only 20-30 kts across the area, with the greatest
   values in close proximity to the well-developed MCV in
   north-central/northeast Texas. However, KSHV VAD data has recently
   observed 40-50 kts of flow in the lowest 2-3 km. Given the large
   buoyancy downstream, strong to severe wind gusts will remain
   possible with north-south oriented portions of the line.

   There is some question how intense the line will remain as it moves
   towards the Mississippi River. Given decreasing shear to the east,
   it seems probable some weakening will occur as it moves across
   northern Louisiana/southern Arkansas. While local areal extensions
   of the watch may be needed this afternoon, the need for a new
   downstream watch is not clear. Trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt.. 06/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32929404 33359349 33579197 33309144 32809150 31769178
               31349198 31279237 31219343 31259393 31439449 32929404