Mesoscale Discussion 0843
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

   Areas affected...Central KY...Middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031726Z - 031930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of damaging wind gusts and/or
   isolated hail are possible for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple southwest-to-northeast oriented thunderstorm
   bands have developed from central KY into middle TN ahead of the
   upper low currently centered near the convergence of MS and OH
   Rivers. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow aloft precedes this
   upper low, stretching from northwest MS through the TN Valley and
   through the northern Mid-Atlantic. Overall instability is modest
   (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis), but still
   sufficient for thunderstorm development. Some localized increases in
   buoyancy are possible in areas where cloud breaks and resulting
   stronger diurnal heating occurs. Given this combination of buoyancy
   and moderate flow aloft, a few stronger storms capable of damaging
   wind gusts and isolated hail may develop. Overall duration and
   coverage of any strong to severe storms is expected to be limited,
   owing predominately to the lack of stronger buoyancy.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   38258528 38778445 38698382 38458369 37558407 36328444
               35288540 35448821 38258528