Mesoscale Discussion 0802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

   Areas affected...east-central New Mexico southward into far west
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291951Z - 292145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop across eastern New Mexico this
   afternoon into this evening across east-central and southeast New
   Mexico. Large hail and gusty winds should be the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates several
   failed attempts at deep, moist convection across the higher terrain
   of south-central New Mexico, within a broad, weak moist-upslope
   regime. These failed attempts can likely be attributed in some part
   to warm upper-level temperatures associated with broad riding
   traversing New Mexico this afternoon and evening. However, with
   continued moistening and heating, it is anticipated that at least
   one or two attempts at deep, moist convection will sustain itself by
   early evening. This scenario is supported by recent high-resolution
   CAM guidance such as the HRRR. Should deep, moist convection sustain
   itself, steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates and long
   mid-to-upper-level hodographs suggest that large hail and gusty
   outflows will be possible this afternoon and evening, with hail
   being the predominant threat.

   Farther south, sustained convection is occurring across the higher
   terrain of far west Texas. Through the afternoon, sustained
   convection should remain tied to the terrain and may pose a hail
   threat in the more robust updrafts. 

   At this time, convective coverage may remain sufficiently sparse to
   preclude the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but trends will
   be monitored through the afternoon.

   ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32940331 29010363 30720557 32650592 35160578 36110387
               35630314 32940331