Mesoscale Discussion 0774
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

   Areas affected...parts of northeast Arkansas...western
   Tennessee...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southwest
   Indiana...western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272221Z - 280015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected as a line
   of storms approaches from the west. While a couple of damaging gusts
   and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany some of the
   stronger storms, the severe threat is expect to remain sparse enough
   to withhold a WW issuance at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively organized squall line is in progress
   across parts of southern IL into northeast AR as shown by the latest
   MRMS mosaic radar data. While portions of the squall have shown well
   developed structures over the past couple of hours (i.e. 30 dBZ echo
   tops exceeding 40 kft), the storms are approaching a less
   unstable/sheared airmass, characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and
   effective bulk shear mainly under 35 kts. While the present
   CAPE/shear parameter space supports sustenance of the approaching
   MCS with some gusty wind/hail potential, the overall coverage of
   severe gusts/hail is expected to remain too sparse in coverage and
   intensity to warrant the issuance of a WW at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35819098 36579061 37458960 37948886 38618747 38748660
               38528598 37988572 37388606 36858666 36438742 35978818
               35468887 35328953 35259026 35819098