Mesoscale Discussion 0766
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern Missouri and eastern
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271836Z - 271930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms developing along the advancing cold front may pose
   local risk for gusty winds and hail.  However, risk may remain
   isolated/limited, and thus need for a WW remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loop shows an increase in cumulus
   growth along the slowly advancing cold front, in the wake of earlier
   convection/cloud cover where some heating/destabilization is
   occurring.  While CAPE remains somewhat modest across this area --
   generally around 1000 J/kg, additional heating may allow enough
   instability to occur, to support a few stronger storms near the
   advancing boundary.  

   Area VWPs indicate moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterlies
   -- sufficient to aid in updraft organization/rotation.  As such,
   with some additional destabilization, limited/local severe risk may
   evolve, but at this time we are expecting that coverage of stronger
   storms may remain limited.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 05/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   40169471 39909418 38709411 37609585 37029813 38079791
               39119609 39689522 40169471