Mesoscale Discussion 0735
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota and into northwestern
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251915Z - 252115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and associated severe
   potential is expected over the next couple of hours.  A WW may be
   required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
   from western Ontario across eastern Minnesota, which continues to
   progress eastward.  Ahead of the front, gradual clearing has
   resulted heating/destabilization, with 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer
   CAPE now indicated across Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota.  

   The 18Z MPX RAOB also reflects the heating/destabilization that is
   occurring, with a nearly uncapped boundary layer indicated, and well
   over 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.  Correspondingly, bands of TCU/CB
   are evolving along and ahead of the front, with a continued/gradual
   convective increase expected over the next 1 to 2 hours.

   As storms evolve, updraft intensity will likely be aided by
   favorably strong speed shear resulting from increasing southwesterly
   flow with height through the lower and middle troposphere.  As a
   result, locally gusty/damaging winds and hail will become
   increasingly likely with time, with wind potential greatest where
   any linear/banding evolution can occur.  While CAM guidance remains
   inconsistent with respect to eventual storm coverage, we will
   continue to monitor convective evolution, with an eye toward
   possible WW issuance this afternoon.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   48098965 46478921 44279008 43899341 44079355 45019278
               46729159 48099086 48098965