Mesoscale Discussion 0730
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

   Areas affected...west through northwest KS through far eastern CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250441Z - 250615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms developing over western KS and far eastern CO may
   become capable of producing a few instances of large hail. At this
   time, a WW issuance will probably not be needed, but trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated storm has formed over western KS in Greeley
   county, and additional storms will likely develop in association
   with augmented isentropic ascent resulting from a strengthening
   southerly low-level jet interacting with a stalled front. The
   atmosphere in this region remains moderately unstable with 1500-2000
   J/kg MUCAPE, 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt effective
   bulk shear. This environment might support a few updrafts capable of
   producing isolated large hail next few hours.

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 05/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38440128 38390211 38960247 39520236 39600160 39170113
               38440128