Mesoscale Discussion 0726
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

   Areas affected...west Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201...

   Valid 242344Z - 250115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and downburst winds remain likely with
   storms developing across west Texas through 01Z. Primary threat will
   probably transition to damaging wind toward mid evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue developing along the
   dryline across west Texas where the strongest heating, mixing and
   convergence has occurred west of the Lubbock area. Farther north the
   19Z RAOB from Amarillo showed a pronounced capping inversion, and
   thunderstorm development has been delayed due in part to somewhat
   cooler surface temperatures. VWP data indicate weak effective bulk
   shear on the order of 25 kt supporting mostly multicells. However,
   up to 35 kt effective bulk shear with northward extent toward the
   Panhandle might support some marginal supercell structures. Visible
   satellite imagery shows a westward-moving boundary from the eastern
   TX Panhandle southward through northwest TX. This boundary
   demarcates the westward surge of higher dewpoints. It is likely that
   this feature will eventually merge with some of the outflows
   produced by the storms in west TX, at which time a rapid upscale
   growth into a liner MCS might occur toward mid evening. The MCS
   could be sustained into a portion of the overnight by a
   strengthening southerly low-level jet.

   ..Dial.. 05/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32850281 34090240 35280238 35910203 35970140 35630111
               34850096 33460107 32900133 32440194 32460250 32850281