Mesoscale Discussion 0691
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

   Areas affected...coastal areas of southwest and south-central
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200434Z - 200600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong, gusty thunderstorm winds are possible along
   coastal areas of southwest and south-central Louisiana over the next
   few hours. A watch is currently not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A linear mesoscale convective system (MCS) is
   organizing across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and southwest
   Louisiana to the northeast of a remnant mesoscale convective vortex
   (MCV) across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Recent radar and
   lightning trends have indicated an increase in thunderstorm
   intensity with an associated increase in thunderstorm outflow winds.
   Given that these thunderstorms are associated with an MCV and moving
   into a background environment that is very moist and unstable and
   weakly capped, they should continue to persist overnight as they
   move east. 

   Low-to-mid-level wind profiles are largely southerly across the
   region per area VADS. Despite resulting in modest effective-layer
   shear, this wind profile will augment thunderstorm outflow winds
   with any northward moving convection. In this scenario, a localized
   wind threat may materialize with the strongest thunderstorm cores.
   Given the orientation of the MCS, this threat would materialized
   mostly along coastal areas of southwest and south-central Louisiana,
   where thunderstorm winds will also be slightly higher owing to less
   surface friction ove the Gulf of Mexico. The threat should remain
   fairly brief/localized and a watch is currently not anticipated.

   ..Marsh/Dial.. 05/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29669321 30109334 30379309 30359199 30279124 29959074
               29409070 29089096 29119164 29289259 29449302 29669321