Mesoscale Discussion 0633
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   Areas affected...western through southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176...

   Valid 160340Z - 160515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for isolated large
   hail and locally strong wind gusts over western through central and
   southern KS through 05Z followed by a gradual weakening trend.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered storms continue
   developing within an evolving warm advection regime. Latest VWP data
   show the low-level jet has strengthened to 40 kt, and this should
   support additional storms the next couple of hours. The atmosphere
   is moderately unstable with 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. However, winds aloft
   are relatively weak indicating storms will remain primarily
   multicell in character, and also suggests the large hail threat with
   any given updraft will be brief. A few instances of locally strong
   wind gusts are also possible within the stronger cores.

   ..Dial.. 05/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37269748 37559940 38170135 38710139 38870029 38589820
               37999732 37269748