Mesoscale Discussion 0629
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming and far Western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 160041Z - 160245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/damaging wind threat possible, watch
   issuance unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows scattered convection
   with fairly robust updrafts moving into south-central portions of
   Wyoming. The ambient environment remains weakly unstable (MUCAPE
   500-1000 J/kg) amid moderate deep-layer shear (35-40 kt effective
   bulk shear). This activity may pose a risk for isolated severe hail
   and damaging wind gusts for the next few hours. 

   As this activity traverses eastward off the high terrain it will
   encounter richer low-level moisture, where 50 F dew point
   temperatures are currently analyzed across portions of southeast
   Wyoming. Should storms hold together, some intensification of the
   activity can be expected. Given the ambient shear profile, storms
   may congeal into more a linear mode (as suggested by recent HRRR
   runs), perhaps maintaining a damaging wind threat later this
   evening.

   ..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41070470 41060670 41680803 41800876 42540901 42890840
               43060629 42920461 42560408 42090349 41250329 41030370
               41070470