Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   Areas affected...Central Nevada

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152056Z - 152230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing beneath an upper-level low may
   produce occasional severe wind gusts or hail through this evening.
   Trends will be monitored, but a weather watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity has steadily
   increased over the last half hour across portions of central Nevada
   as stronger ascent from the upper low across the Great Basin has
   moved overhead. Additional strong/severe storm development appears
   likely late this afternoon and into the evening with the risk of
   large hail and damaging winds. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s F
   underneath a pocket of -17 to -20c 500 mb temperatures is
   contributing to 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE across much of central
   Nevada. Favorable veering wind profiles to the east of the low
   center with deep-layer shear around 40 kts should be sufficient for
   a few organized storms, including supercells. The steep lapse rates
   in the mid-levels will promote hail growth within the strongest
   storms as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts through this
   evening. Trends will be monitored but a watch is not expected at
   this time.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...VEF...LKN...REV...

   LAT...LON   39131891 40511881 41201808 41521685 41201555 40471500
               39191545 38541660 38161721 38211791 38341815 39131891