Mesoscale Discussion 0611
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern SD...Southwest MN...Extreme northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142158Z - 142330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible into early
   evening, with some threat of hail and strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has recently developed
   across extreme west-central MN, near a weak surface low over
   northeast SD, with other scattered storms trying to develop
   southwestward across eastern SD along a surface trough. While
   low-level moisture is generally limited, afternoon heating and
   relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -20C) are supporting
   SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, per recent objective mesoanalyses. Modest
   west-northwesterly midlevel flow is supporting 25-35 kt of effective
   shear, which will support the potential for organized multicells or
   perhaps a supercell with any sustained convection. The primary
   threat will likely be hail, though isolated strong wind gusts will
   also be possible in areas where stronger boundary-layer
   heating/mixing has occurred.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 05/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43809816 44829751 45769700 46149670 46279596 46149548
               45279533 43949584 42869633 42749702 42969758 43369851
               43629847 43809816