Mesoscale Discussion 0608
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

   Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141956Z - 142200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity
   after 22Z, with the strongest storms expected over the Texas
   Panhandle through evening. Hail and wind may reach severe
   thresholds.

   DISCUSSION...The air mass over the southern High Plains continues to
   warm this this afternoon with strong boundary-layer mixing also
   occurring. Overall PWAT values are holding steady, with around 0.75"
   near the NM/TX border and up to 1.00" into northwest TX. The 18Z AMA
   sounding shows a capping air mass beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
   with convective temperatures near 85 F. Given continued heating, the
   capping should be eroded by late afternoon over the region.

   Scattered thunderstorms are currently developing over the higher
   terrain in NM east of LVS and west of ROW. Shear is currently weak
   in these areas, but locally strong gusts or marginal hail cannot be
   ruled out.

   More substantial storm development is expected near peak heating,
   and closer to the NM/TX border near the surface trough. Surface
   convergence here will be sufficient to initiate storms after 22Z
   given expected deep mixed layers and cap erosion. Although winds
   aloft are relatively weak out of the northwest, good southerly flow
   in the low-levels across TX will support storm inflow with
   southeastward-moving storms. Substantial outflow is expected with
   these storms, perhaps a few severe gusts. At least marginal hail is
   also expected with the stronger cores, with a greater chance of hail
   before storms merge. Eventually, a watch may be required for parts
   of the area and trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Jewell/Kerr.. 05/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36400376 36810317 36880268 36840166 36450069 35859995
               35269985 34869988 34400017 34030170 33920269 34060330
               34240351 35040386 35800397 36080393 36400376