Mesoscale Discussion 0593
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...and the
   western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111846Z - 112045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A loosely-organized squall line may be capable of damaging
   winds as it continues east along the Gulf Coast. However, confidence
   in this threat is low, and a watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Recent velocity data from KMOB shows outflow associated
   with a weak and loosely organized squall line becoming slightly more
   organized as it propagates to the east across southwestern AL and
   into the FL Panhandle. VWP observations from KMOB show 20-30 knots
   winds in the lowest 2-3 km associated with this line, which is
   supported by recent observed wind gusts up to 25 knots at the
   surface. While severe winds do not appear likely in the near term,
   the potential for damaging winds may increase over the next 1-3
   hours as the line moves into southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL
   Panhandle where low-level lapse rates are steepening to 7-8 C/km
   amid modest daytime heating. The environment ahead of this line
   remains supportive for storm maintenance, but it is not immediately
   clear if the damaging wind potential will be realized along the
   entire line - mainly due to weak low-level shear in the lowest 4 km.
   Pockets of intensification are noted in GOES IR imagery over the
   past 30 minutes, which suggests that at least localized strong winds
   are possible. Due to the low confidence in a more widespread/robust
   severe threat, a watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31398810 31858797 32168747 32368612 32418533 32298476
               31718439 31008445 30178501 30048536 30298602 30378661
               30328707 30278761 30288793 30928802 31398810