Mesoscale Discussion 0551
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast MO/MO Bootheel...Southern IL...Far
   Western KY...Western TN...Northeast AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061702Z - 061900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across the
   region this afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms develop
   along and ahead of the cold front.

   DISCUSSION...Updrafts continue to deepen within the convective
   cluster along and ahead of the cold front moving southeastward into
   southeast MO and adjacent southern IL. Expectation is for these
   storms to continued to strengthen as they move into the slightly
   warmer and more moist air mass downstream. 

   Cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep lapse rates will
   support moderate buoyancy, despite the relatively modest low-level
   moisture. Strong unidirectional deep-layer flow will result in fast
   storm motion as well as the potential for a strong, convectively
   augmented wind gusts. Additionally, given the cold mid-level
   temperatures and moderate mid-level flow, hail is also possible with
   the stronger updrafts. Anticipated strong to severe nature of the
   storms merits possible watch issuance and convective trends are
   being monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

   LAT...LON   37339077 38128968 37758824 36678775 35638830 35248919
               35329036 36129123 37339077