Mesoscale Discussion 0546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052047Z - 052215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or a damaging gusts
   cannot be ruled out with one of the stronger storms. A WW issuance
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...High-based, low-topped convection continues to
   intensify ahead of a slowly east-southeastward advancing cold front
   across portions of the Central Plains per latest MRMS mosaic radar
   imagery. Immediately along the front, latest Mesoanalysis depicts up
   to 500 J/kg MLCAPE driven primarily by ample insolation, mid 40s
   surface dewpoints, and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates advected
   eastward by modest mid-level flow. One of the stronger storms may
   briefly support a couple instances of severe hail, though hail is
   expected to remain small overall given the very skinny CAPE vertical
   profiles. A damaging gust also cannot be ruled out given the
   relatively dry boundary layer, as also inferred by near 20F
   temperature/dewpoint depressions via the latest METAR observations.

   The severe threat area should be confined to a limited area east of
   the front given overall scant low-level moisture and slow eastward
   advection of the steeper lapse rates. The locally confined, brief
   nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39089897 39479916 40029890 40799836 41789785 42029771
               42149718 41979669 41599641 41489639 41049625 39989655
               39319756 39139847 39089897