Mesoscale Discussion 0536
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern LA...southern
   MS...southern/central AL...and the far western FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

   Valid 042146Z - 042315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

   SUMMARY...A widespread damaging wind threat will continue with a
   bowing line of storms moving eastward. Isolated embedded tornadoes
   also remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow will move quickly eastward late
   this afternoon from from southeastern LA/southern MS into
   southern/central AL over the next couple of hours. The most
   progressive portion of this line is advancing around 40-45 kt into
   west-central AL as of 2145Z. Other storms have formed along an
   outflow boundary extending from near Tuscaloosa to just south of
   Birmingham to near Auburn AL. This outflow boundary will likely
   serve as the northern limit to any substantial severe threat. Given
   the current intensity of the bowing complex, the presence of
   moderate to locally strong instability downstream (MLCAPE generally
   2000-2500 J/kg), sufficient deep-layer shear, and steepened
   low-level lapse rates from diurnal heating, widespread
   severe/damaging winds of 60-70+ mph will remain the primary severe
   threat in the short term. Although low-level winds are not very
   strong ahead of the ongoing severe convection, up to 100 m2/s2 of
   0-1 km SRH may still support some potential for embedded low-level
   circulations and a brief/isolated tornado threat.

   ..Gleason.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30749079 31598960 32258842 33268783 33008574 32698585
               31328633 30468677 30188959 30339014 30749079