Mesoscale Discussion 0523
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...East Louisiana...Southern Mississippi...and
   southwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041333Z - 041530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of the
   lower Mississippi river valley region, and will likely continue
   through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Strong to severe
   storms are expected, and a watch is likely to address this concern.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar and satellite trends show
   thunderstorm development underway across south-central MS with a
   robust supercell noted near the Jackson, MS area. Visible imagery
   shows additional agitated cumulus across the region within a broad
   warm advection regime. Morning soundings show only minimal capping
   in place with MLCAPE values between 2000-2500 J/kg. Additionally,
   favorable wind profiles are noted with 30-40 knots of effective bulk
   shear and 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH in regional soundings and VWPs.
   These trends and observations suggest that additional thunderstorm
   development is likely in the coming hours and should support at
   least a few robust severe storms with all severe hazards possible.
   (though storm mode and coverage remain somewhat uncertain). A watch
   will likely be needed to address this potential.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31529301 32349264 33029020 33078911 33068787 32818707
               32278705 31498759 31038862 30648982 30589101 30839273
               31529301