Mesoscale Discussion 0503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0515 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

   Valid 032215Z - 032345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 131 through the remainder of the afternoon. Large
   hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats, but
   a tornado is also possible, particularly with any supercell
   structures.

   DISCUSSION...Organized linear segments and a discrete supercell have
   matured across northern and central portions of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 131 over the past couple of hours. A couple of severe
   hail/damaging gust reports have recently been received with the more
   discrete convection across west-central IL. Here, temperatures have
   been able to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with mid 60s F
   dewpoints contributing to MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. While mid
   to upper tropospheric flow is not particularly strong, modest
   veering with height is contributing to 35+ kts of effective bulk
   shear, supporting updraft organization. The severe threat is
   expected to remain locally higher with the more discrete storms
   across central IL, where instability is more robust relative to
   points farther north. Low-level shear is weak across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 131 overall, but given some directional shear in
   the boundary layer, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with
   any supercell structures.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   38498907 38229046 38379199 40449091 40999056 41168998
               41168913 41028879 40528785 39998774 39338810 38748861
               38498907