Mesoscale Discussion 0477
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

   Areas affected...western Alabama.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 022141Z - 022245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Small supercells with a history of producing tornadoes may
   continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes over the next couple of
   hours as a warm front lifts northeastward.

   DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis showed a diffuse warm front across
   western Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Several small supercells
   have developed over the last within the deep surface moisture to the
   southwest of the warm front. Weak destabilization, MLCAPE around 500
   J/kg, will likely continue to support weak convection for at least a
   couple of hours. Backed low-level winds along the front are
   enhancing low-level shear with 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Hi-res
   guidance and observational trends suggest a corridor of tornado
   potential will likely exists for at least a couple of hours as
   storms move to the northeast along the front. Coverage is expected
   to remain low, but a few tornadoes will be possible. Portions of
   west-central Alabama will be included in a Tornado Watch being
   coordinated across Mississippi.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/02/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33838781 33418738 32428730 31968730 31668742 31628766
               31728790 32218819 32868830 33458824 33558823 33908808
               33838781