Mesoscale Discussion 0454
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of extreme southeast Missouri...extreme
   southern Illinois and far western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

   Valid 282029Z - 282200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat remains across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 0118 over the next few hours. A couple damaging gusts are
   expected be the primary concern.

   DISCUSSION...The remnants of an earlier QLCS persist across western
   portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0118 in the form of a loosely
   organized multicellular cluster which is about to cross the Missouri
   Bootheel. These storms are traversing a relatively diffuse west-east
   oriented baroclinic zone, characterized by 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and
   40-50 kts of effective bulk shear as shown by the latest
   Mesoanalysis. The 1948Z KPAH VWP also shows modest low-level shear
   (i.e. just over 150 m2/s2 0-3km SRH) with a nearly straight
   hodograph. As such, the multicellular cluster is expected to
   continue across the watch over the next few hours. Nonetheless, the
   storms are propagating away from the low-level jet axis, which is
   currently established across parts of the Mid South, as well as the
   stronger mid-level flow. Questions remain regarding the overall
   coverage of damaging winds. Nonetheless, the aforementioned
   CAPE/shear parameter space suggests that at least a couple damaging
   gusts and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36429076 37109034 37568971 37748838 37798764 37668717
               37308686 36878680 36598719 36418875 36429076