Mesoscale Discussion 0448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0925 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central TX...southern/eastern
   OK...and northwestern AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 116...

   Valid 281425Z - 281530Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues this morning, but the
   need for additional watch issuance remains unclear.

   DISCUSSION...Within a broad precipitation shield, embedded
   thunderstorms have shown signs of occasional organization/rotation
   this morning from parts of north-central TX into southern/eastern OK
   and northwestern AR. Instability remains fairly weak across this
   region, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg downstream of ongoing
   convection. Even with this limited instability, the presence of rich
   low-level moisture and a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet may
   support continued storm organization with the strongest updrafts.
   The overall severe threat has remained rather isolated so far this
   morning, and this trend should continue for the next few hours
   before potentially increasing again later this afternoon. At this
   point, it remains unclear whether another watch issuance will be
   needed to replace Tornado Watch 116, which is scheduled to expire at
   15Z (10 AM CDT). Regardless, radar trends will continue to be
   closely monitored.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32719797 33549778 35079617 36349384 36399347 35779374
               32809752 32719797