Mesoscale Discussion 0410
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

   Areas affected...Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

   Valid 232226Z - 240030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat will persist through at least 7 PM
   associated with a trio of discrete supercells, though large hail
   will remain the primary concern. To the northwest across the Texas
   Panhandle, developing thunderstorms will pose a wind/hail threat
   over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A trio of discrete supercells have become established
   as they move off the dryline and toward the Red River. Radar and
   satellite trends suggest the more robust northern supercell is
   likely taking advantage of enhanced low-level helicity along and
   just north of a warm frontal boundary that is draped along the Red
   River. This cell has also exhibited notable right deviant motion,
   likely the result of a strengthening mesocyclone and propagation
   along the warm front/instability gradient to the east. This cell
   should continue on an eastward trajectory over the next 1-2 hours
   and will primarily pose a large hail threat. However, given ambient
   surface vorticity along the boundary (and backed easterly flow just
   north of the boundary), the tornado threat will persist. The
   neighboring storms to the south/southeast may intensify in the
   coming hours, especially if they can become rooted along the
   boundary. Upscale growth into a cluster is still expected later this
   evening after 00Z as storms continue to move east. 

   To the northwest, thunderstorm development along the dryline has
   been underway with a few stronger updrafts noted. This activity is
   occurring on the northwestern periphery of richer boundary layer
   moisture where dewpoint remain in the 50s. Sufficient instability
   (around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) along with favorable effective bulk shear
   (35-45 knots) roughly off the dryline should continue to support
   semi-discrete storms capable of producing severe hail and wind.

   ..Moore.. 04/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33449978 33810008 34380024 34709988 34799934 34619882
               34439831 34199795 33849781 33529819 33419905 33449978