Mesoscale Discussion 0389
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...

   Valid 151724Z - 151930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Local risk for large hail continues.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated strong/severe storms
   continuing across parts of central Texas, on the southern fringe of
   an expanding area of convection across portions of western and
   northern Texas and into southwestern Oklahoma.  While instability
   diminishes with northward extent -- and thus severe risk does, as
   well -- ample instability over central Texas in tandem with
   moderately strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer will
   continue to support risk for large hail locally, with
   elevated/rotating storms.

   With time, several CAMs suggest that storms will continue moving
   eastward/northeastward out of the existing watch.  While storms
   moving northeastward appear to be of less concern, greater CAPE east
   of the existing watch could permit an increase in local hail risk
   into the Hill Country and vicinity.  However, it appears at this
   time that risk would likely remain very isolated, casting
   uncertainty on the need for a possible/downstream WW.

   ..Goss.. 04/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30489964 30819982 31499963 31689858 31539671 30949660
               30089693 30149849 30489964