Mesoscale Discussion 0349
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Virginia into northern North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78...

   Valid 092223Z - 100000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch #078. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the
   primary threats, with severe potential likely persisting for at
   least a few more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Mature semi-discrete multicellular clusters and
   transient supercells are straddling the VA/NC border, with MRMS
   Mosaic radar data showing MESH cores within the 1-1.5 inch range
   with 50 dBZ cell cores exceeding 35 kft. 20Z Mesoanalysis provided
   mid-level lapse rates show a 7-8 C/km plume advecting eastward over
   the Carolina Piedmont, atop widespread 8-8.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates
   given the presence of a dry boundary layer. The deep-layer steep
   lapse rates will continue to support a large hail threat with the
   more mature storms. Though the deep-layer flow below 500 mb is
   relatively weak, the dry boundary layer will foster ample
   microphysical cooling, with damaging outflow gusts possible. While
   storm outflow will have a tendency to locally undercut storms and
   reduce their longevity to a degree, the outflow will support
   localized lift for the initiation of newer, intense updrafts. As
   such, large hail and gusty wind threats are expected to persist for
   at least a few more hours, with a gradual weakening trend expected
   with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36497985 36937938 36977858 36997736 37007642 36587582
               36157593 35907650 35737718 35897828 36187927 36347996
               36497985