Mesoscale Discussion 0333
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

   Areas affected...northeast Tennessee through eastern
   Kentucky...southeast Illinois and far southwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082024Z - 082200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may be capable of producing a few strong to
   locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon into early evening. A ww
   will probably not be needed unless convective trends begin to
   dictate otherwise.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and a few thunderstorms are developing along a
   pre-frontal convergence boundary across northeast TN, eastern KY as
   well as farther northwest along an occluded front into southeast IN.
   A modest increase in intensity has been observed with activity over
   eastern KY. The pre-frontal warm sector remains mostly cloudy, but
   some breaks are resulting in surface temperatures rising to near 70
   F with resulting boundary layer destabilization and up to 600 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Thunderstorms should continue developing along these
   boundaries from eastern TN into a portion of the OH Valley during
   the next few hours in association with a northeast-advancing
   vorticity maximum as the surface layer continues to destabilize.
   This activity is embedded within 40-45 kt deep layer winds with
   30-40 kt effective bulk shear. A few bowing segments and possibly
   marginal supercell structures may pose some risk for mainly a few
   strong to damaging wind gusts. A weak thermodynamic environment
   remains the primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 04/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40008545 39858466 38538346 36798326 36028480 37088494
               37788508 38748547 39588559 40008545