Mesoscale Discussion 0325
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0313 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of south central through northeastern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74...

   Valid 072013Z - 072145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An evolving squall line will pose a risk for potentially
   damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes across much of
   south central and central into northeastern Missouri through 5-6 PM
   CDT.  It is not clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed
   to the east of the watch, but trends are being monitored for this
   possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Despite thick low cloud cover in advance of the
   evolving squall line,  inflow still appears characterized by CAPE on
   the order of 1000 J/kg, supporting a continued gradual
   intensification and organization, in the presence of moderate to
   strong vertical shear.  As the vigorous upstream short wave trough
   takes on an increasing negative tilt, deep-layer mean flow is
   backing from southwesterly to southerly across much of Missouri. 
   This is expected to contribute to a north-northeastward development
   of strongest convection across and north-northeast of the
   Columbia/Jefferson City areas through 22-23Z, with activity probably
   remaining to the west and northwest of much of the St. Louis area. 
   East of the West Plains and Vichy vicinities, warmer but somewhat
   drier and less unstable boundary-layer air lingers.  The extent to
   which it will moisten and destabilize prior to the arrival of the
   squall line and/or eastward surging cold front remains unclear.

   ..Kerr.. 04/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39319287 39859202 39049063 38349111 36729124 36669230
               37079252 38009248 38569270 39319287