Mesoscale Discussion 0307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Mississippi through northern
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 310655Z - 310900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm development may persist and continue
   to spread east-northeastward across the region through 4-6 AM CDT,
   with at least some continuing risk for potentially damaging surface
   gusts and, perhaps, an isolated, brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...An eastward advancing zone of low/mid-level warm
   advection (mostly in the 850-700 mb layer) continues to support a
   developing area of thunderstorm activity across northern Mississippi
   into Alabama.  Ascent is being enhanced by high-level divergence
   downstream of the base of amplified large-scale troughing, which is
   forecast to spread toward the southern Appalachians through 11-12Z. 

   This convection includes a small, but organizing cluster of storms
   (currently north of Columbus, MS), preceded by an isolated
   supercell, supported by inflow of weak to moderate CAPE on the order
   of 500-1000 J/kg.  Stronger convection probably has become rooted
   close to the surface, where hodographs within the inflow layer may
   be moderately large and clockwise curved beneath a 30-40
   southwesterly 850 mb jet.  Otherwise, activity appears mostly rooted
   above weakly unstable to neutral near surface lapse rates which
   trend at least a bit more stable with eastward extent into the
   southern Appalachians.  This seems likely to continue to inhibit
   tornado potential, although an isolated, brief tornado may not be
   completely out of the question.  However, with weak mid-level lapse
   rates expected to continue to minimize the potential for severe
   hail, locally damaging wind gusts appears the primary potential
   severe hazard, aided by heavy precipitation.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/31/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33928958 34578832 34548687 34498601 34138597 33698635
               33708703 33658864 33928958