Mesoscale Discussion 0304
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

   Areas affected...The Ark-La-Miss region into southeastern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302246Z - 310045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may evolve within a broad
   warm advection regime across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and
   southern Arkansas. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary
   concerns, though a low-end tornado threat is noted.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery and lightning data show deeper
   convection has begun to develop within a broad, but modest, warm
   advection regime in place over the northern Gulf states. These
   deeper updrafts are beginning to mature in a supportive environment
   with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-45 knots of effective bulk shear.
   Additionally, the low-level warm advection regime has resulted in
   substantial directional shear in the lowest 2-3 km per regional
   VWPs. Little to no surface-based inhibition has allowed earlier
   scattered convection to develop in close proximity to neighboring
   storms, resulting in numerous storm interactions and storm clusters.
   This trend may continue with the more recent, deeper convection and
   limit the overall severe threat.

   However, a few discrete storms may evolve over the next few hours
   and pose a risk for severe hail and damaging wind. Effective SRH on
   the order of 100-200 m2/s2 across the region appears sufficient to
   support a low-end tornado threat, but mitigating factors, such as
   downdraft/precipitation distribution ahead of the storm path, may
   limit this potential. That being said, the tornado potential may be
   slightly higher along a weak surface warm front noted from southern
   AR into far southeast LA/southwest MS where surface winds are backed
   to the south/southeast and low-level SRH may be enhanced. But given
   the conditional/isolated nature of this threat, a watch is not
   expected.

   ..Moore/Edwards.. 03/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33839050 33418990 32688910 32028865 31368806 30758815
               30488864 30508921 30918986 31059050 31189123 31139227
               31149302 31469341 32059355 32819315 33309280 33849220
               34059193 33839050