Mesoscale Discussion 0290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62...

   Valid 280058Z - 280230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms moving through WW 62 continue to pose a threat for
   large hail and damaging winds. A watch extension or new watch may be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Storms that formed earlier across portions of eastern
   Missouri have crossed the Mississippi River and entered portions of
   southern Illinois and intensified a bit, with embedded supercell
   structures present. Given the background environment characterized
   by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear exceeding 60
   kt, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary hazards.
   Improving low-level shear may foster an isolated tornado threat, at
   least while supercell modes can be maintained.

   Farther south, convection is now intensifying along the advancing
   cold front across far southeast Missouri. A linear mode convection
   seems likely, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts, though
   embedded supercell structures may materialized with time. 

   Short-term convection-allowing model trends suggest the environment
   may stabilize considerably by 03z-04z. However, it seems likely that
   severe storms will continue into portions of southern Illinois.
   Thus, a watch extension or new watch may need to be considered
   downstream of WW 62.

   ..Karstens.. 03/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36619028 36839137 38618986 39228833 38358783 36988905
               36619028