Mesoscale Discussion 0286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri and Central/Southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62...

   Valid 272316Z - 280045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe storms continue across the watch area.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar depicts a couple of discrete supercells
   now moving into portions of east-central Illinois. One of these
   storms tracked through the St. Louis metro area, producing hail to
   the size of golf balls. Another cell farther north has also produced
   severe hail and a severe wind gust (53 kt) at the TAZ ASOS. These
   storms are riding the northern periphery of a low-level moisture
   axis characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the mid 50s
   F yielding MUCAPE near 500-1000 J/kg amid a strongly sheared
   environment (effective bulk shear near 60 kt). A downstream watch
   extension has been coordinated for this area.

   Farther south, a line of storms is developing along the advancing
   cold front across portions of south-central Missouri, with stronger
   cores embedded. These storms may continue to pose a threat for large
   hail in the near term, as low-level thermodynamic conditions (MLCAPE
   1000-1500 J/kg) is conducive to sustain severe convection. With
   time, the primary threat may transition to damaging winds associated
   with a linear mode of convection.

   ..Karstens.. 03/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36599126 36749253 37459243 38959101 39938931 40038759
               39078768 37688943 36599126