Mesoscale Discussion 0263
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0552 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Far
   northern MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

   Valid 252252Z - 260015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

   SUMMARY...An increase in the severe threat is possible this evening,
   with all hazards possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has increased in coverage and intensity over
   the last hour from far northern MS into western/middle TN and
   western/central KY, in advance of a powerful midlevel shortwave
   trough over MO and a deepening surface low moving into southern IL.
   MLCAPE across the region ranges from around 500 J/kg in the cooler
   airmass across KY to over 1000 J/kg into TN/northern MS. Very strong
   effective shear in excess of 60 kt (noted in objective mesoanalyses
   and the 21Z OHX sounding) will support the potential for organized
   storm structures, including the potential for bowing segments
   capable of damaging wind gusts, and supercells capable of hail
   (especially with any left-moving cells) and perhaps a couple of
   tornadoes. 

   The coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain across this
   region, as the strong shear and very dry midlevel air moving in from
   the west may cause convection to struggle in an environment where
   buoyancy is relatively limited. However, any sustained convection
   within this environment will pose a severe threat through the
   evening.

   ..Dean.. 03/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34978961 36438900 37328843 37668796 37748734 37778665
               37828589 37408554 35448682 35008819 34858901 34858942
               34978961