Mesoscale Discussion 0247
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

   Areas affected...parts of the Edwards Plateau

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

   Valid 250328Z - 250430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

   SUMMARY...A focused corridor for higher hail potential appears to be
   maximizing over parts of the Edwards Plateau through 1100-1130pm
   CDT.  Very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is possible with the
   stronger supercells embedded within this thunderstorm cluster.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS MESH and single site WSR-88D imagery recently
   showed a very intense supercell over Kimble County, TX with hail
   potentially 2-3 inches in diameter.  This storm has formed on the
   southern periphery of a cluster of convection near the front draped
   southwest to northeast.  Additional storm development is likely on
   the southwestern flank as storms break the cap near Val Verde
   County.  The latest RAP forecast sounding for Junction, TX shows
   strong effective shear (55+ kt) with a 500 mb temperature at -19 deg
   C---very favorable for supercell hail production.  A long hodograph
   supported by 135 kt 300 mb flow (reference the 02 UTC Junction RAP
   sounding) will favor ample updraft venting and hail production with
   the more dominant cells over the next hour.  The very large hail
   threat may gradually wane beyond 1130pm as the convective mode/cell
   interference lessens the risk.

   ..Smith.. 03/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30200073 29730079 30409936 31049933 30200073