Mesoscale Discussion 0245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0815 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into the TX Hill Country

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 250115Z - 250315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Additional storm development is likely by mid to late
   evening.  All severe hazards (hail, wind, tornado) are possible.  A
   new watch will likely need to be coordinated before 10pm prior to
   expiration of tornado watch #47.  The type of watch (severe
   thunderstorm, tornado) is still a bit uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Visible/IR satellite imagery during the past 1.5 hours
   has shown the development of a mid-level cloud patch straddling the
   Rio Grande from parts of Terrell and Val Verde counties.  The cloud
   development is likely in response to stronger forcing for ascent
   beginning to spread east towards the west edge of the moist/unstable
   sector located over the TX Hill Country.  As the upward vertical
   motion continues to move east, concurrent with a strengthening
   low-level jet, expecting the gradual development of additional
   thunderstorms initially near Val Verde, Sutton, and Edwards
   counties.  As this activity matures, an accompanying severe risk is
   probable given strong vertical shear and ample instability.  Large
   hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary risk.  However, some
   recent CAM model runs have shown the development of strong simulated
   supercells.  Although the low-level shear is not currently forecast
   to be very strong, a conditional risk for a few low-level
   mesocyclones and an attendant tornado risk could materialize. 
   Nonetheless, vigorous storms capable of hail/wind will likely
   develop and a severe risk will probably linger into the overnight.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 03/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29540128 30270114 31649975 32339866 32349769 31949674
               31489667 30929690 29659853 29129943 29110066 29540128