Mesoscale Discussion 0233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

   Areas affected...central and north Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

   Valid 230321Z - 230415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Recent ramp up in hail and damaging wind risk has been
   noted over the past hour or so...

   DISCUSSION...Convection across WW 45 appears to be responding well
   to increased low-level shear (associated with strengthening of 850mb
   flow across the region) and destabilization aloft with steep
   mid-level lapse rates overspreading the moist boundary layer
   (characterized by near 60F dewpoints).  A couple of fairly
   impressive supercell structures have been noted west/northwest of
   Austin and hail reports as large as 2.5 inch in diameter have also
   been noted.  Linear segments nearer the DFW area have also resulted
   in a recent 46 knot wind gusts near Rockwall, Texas.

   Latest high-resolution guidance is most aggressive with longevity of
   ongoing convection from near ACT to 50 NW SAT.  These storms should
   migrate east-southeastward and continue to pose a risk of hail/wind
   over the next couple hours while approaching the eastern extent of
   WW 45.  Trends will be monitored for the possibility of either local
   extensions of WW 45 in space and time or a new Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch for downstream areas.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 03/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29529711 29399767 29379891 29599963 30309951 31499894
               32289867 33009829 33379728 33369629 32999583 31799577
               30729572 29999614 29529711