Mesoscale Discussion 0230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

   Areas affected...portions of the Texas South Plains and far
   southeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222124Z - 222230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for downbursts beneath relatively high-based
   storms is possible through sunset, though a WW issuance is currently
   unanticipated.

   DISCUSSION...An area of surface heating beneath a mid-level
   disturbance has generated enough atmospheric instability for
   lightning-producing convection over the past hour.  An observation
   very near this convection indicated a wind gust to 59 knots in
   southeastern NM over the past hour, though some of this may be
   locally enhanced by a cold front migrating through the region in
   addition to nearby convection.  The storms are in a steep-lapse-rate
   environment (around 8C/km) with strong deep shear (around 50 knots),
   though low-level shear is relatively weak.  The late of low-level
   moisture also suggests that nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization
   should result in a decreased severe threat as convection becomes
   increasingly elevated.  In the near term, a risk for isolated
   damaging wind gusts and hail will exist.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 03/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33860353 34170318 34240231 34250180 34040126 33540097
               33080118 32790196 32830263 33050322 33220353 33420355
               33860353