Mesoscale Discussion 0191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western/central OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22...

   Valid 170656Z - 170800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Mainly a severe hail and wind threat continues across part
   of Oklahoma early this morning. Either a watch extension or new
   watch may be needed before 08Z (3 AM CDT).

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are ongoing as of 0655Z across part
   of western/central OK. These mainly elevated storms are ongoing in a
   strong low-level warm advection regime, with 40+ kt of
   south-southwesterly flow noted in the 0-1 km layer per recent KTLX
   VWPs. Large hail should continue to be the main threat, as storms
   are tapping into steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 00Z OUN
   sounding. This convection is expected to continue developing
   northeastward along an instability gradient, with MUCAPE of
   2000-2500+ J/kg available to sustain robust updrafts. Low-level
   inflow of around 60F surface dewpoints into these storms appears
   marginal for strong/gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface.
   Still, given the steep lapse rates aloft and near-neutral boundary
   layer stability, isolated strong to severe wind gusts cannot be
   ruled out. A brief tornado also appears possible given the very
   favorable low-level shear. With Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22
   scheduled to expire at 08Z (3 AM CDT) and storms moving fairly
   slowly northeastward across north-central OK, either an extension in
   time to the ongoing watch or a new watch will likely need to be
   considered in the next hour.

   ..Gleason.. 03/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35159904 35769917 36339853 36819747 36829711 36259706
               36019711 35459833 35159904