Mesoscale Discussion 0184
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast MS...Southern AL...Southwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161807Z - 162030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe storm or two is possible this afternoon from
   southeast MS across southern AL and into southwest GA. Damaging wind
   gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown sporadic bouts of
   updraft intensification over the past hour or so, but little
   persistence has been noted thus far. The overall thermodynamic
   environment has improved slightly, mainly south of the effective
   warm front, which is stretched from MEI eastward/east-northeastward
   across central AL into central GA. The better flow aloft still
   remains north of this boundary, with the resulting dissociation
   between the buoyancy and vertical shear contributing to a generally
   marginal environment.

   General expectation is for warm-air advection to continue across the
   region with shallow cells developing south of the warm front and
   moving northward/northeastward. A narrow corridor exists within the
   vicinity of the front where buoyancy and vertical shear overlap
   enough to support a strong storm or two. Storm mergers could also
   lead to brief updraft intensification and the potential for a strong
   downdraft.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 03/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31788930 32658630 32458405 31178484 30938930 31788930