Mesoscale Discussion 0181
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and much of central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151949Z - 152145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms are possible this
   afternoon. These storms may pose a threat for large hail, damaging
   winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary layer heating beneath very cold mid-level
   temperatures has destabilized portions of eastern Kansas and western
   Missouri where MLCAPE is now around 200 to 300 J/kg per SPC
   mesoanalysis. Expect further destabilization to around 500 J/kg and
   expect it to expand eastward across Missouri as mid-level
   temperatures cool. Expect storms to form in the next 1-2 hours in an
   area of convergence along the surface trough which extends from near
   Topeka, KS to Springfield, MO at 19Z, as it lifts northeastward.
   Moderate to strong effective shear (around 35 to 40 knots per KSGF
   VWP) will aid with storm organization through the afternoon. The
   limited instability will be the primary detriment for stronger
   storms, but a few severe storms are possible, especially across
   central and eastern Missouri where instability and shear are both
   expected to be maximized. The expanding area of cumulus/weak radar
   returns northeast of Springfield, MO is likely where the strongest
   storm or two will develop. 

   Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold mid-level temperatures combined
   with a favorable shear profile for supercells will support a threat
   for large hail with the stronger storms. In addition, some damaging
   winds may be possible given the well-mixed sub-cloud layer. 

   A landspout tornado or two cannot be ruled out in close proximity to
   the surface/mid-level low, mostly across eastern Kansas, where lapse
   rates are steep and low-level vorticity is maximized. In addition, a
   separate area with a supercell tornado threat will exist in central
   and eastern Missouri. Low-level backed flow north and east of this
   boundary is leading to effective SRH around 100 to 125 m2/s2 which
   may increase to near 200 m2/s2 though the afternoon. In addition,
   ingestion of low-level vorticity along the boundary may increase the
   tornado threat. However, storm motion in relation to the orientation
   of this boundary does call into question whether these storms will
   be surface based or if they will be slightly elevated on the
   cool-side of the boundary. 

   Overall, the limited instability and resultant marginal threat may
   preclude watch issuance. However, a locally favorable environment,
   especially in central Missouri, will continue to be monitored.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 03/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37929545 38089585 38529607 39079604 39599583 39719524
               39729399 39519223 39389126 39069046 38749025 38309015
               37649052 37349160 37279279 37669333 37879399 37919470
               37909521 37929545