Mesoscale Discussion 0132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

   Areas affected...Tennessee Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280006Z - 280230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for strong wind gusts and hail is expected across
   parts of western and middle Tennessee over the next few hours. Due
   to the marginal nature of the threat, weather watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
   front located from far northern Mississippi extending
   east-northeastward across southern Tennessee. A corridor of
   maximized low-level moisture is analyzed to the south of the front
   where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. According to
   the RAP, MLCAPE has increased into the 250 to 750 J/kg range along
   this tongue of low-level moisture. Thunderstorms have recently
   developed into western Tennessee along the northern edge of the
   instability corridor. The storms are being supported by a warm
   advection regime. The storms should continue to spread
   east-northeastward across middle Tennessee over the next few hours.
   The weak instability combined with 60-65 kt of deep-layer shear,
   evident on the Nashville WSR-88D VWP will support a marginal wind
   damage and hail threat. However, the threat is not expected to be
   sufficient to warrant weather watch issuance.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 02/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34958763 34998881 35138935 35368956 35798939 36128888
               36528757 36478644 36188595 35478583 35008642 34958763