Mesoscale Discussion 0129
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

   Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southern AR...Northern LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260050Z - 260245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail may accompany thunderstorms from
   northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana this
   evening. Severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a fairly
   well-defined short-wave trough over NM, moving east toward the
   southern High Plains. In response to this feature, LLJ is beginning
   to increase across east TX. Over the last few hours, agitated
   convection has gradually increased in depth/intensity with several
   robust updrafts now evident from Gregg County TX to Caddo Parish LA.
   This activity is likely quite elevated in nature, but strongly
   sheared. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits roughly 400 J/kg MUCAPE if
   lifting a parcel near 760mb. Given the observed shear, there is some
   concern that organized, potentially rotating updrafts, will continue
   along a corridor from northeast TX into southern AR/northern LA
   where low-level warm advection is maximized. Even so, hail may
   struggle to reach severe levels, and unless trends change
   appreciably, severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 02/26/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32939461 33419224 32639178 32289370 32369518 32939461