Mesoscale Discussion 0124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

   Areas affected...northern NC...southeast and eastern VA...eastern
   shore of MD...DE...far southern NJ

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 190956Z - 191300Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
   forecast from eastern VA into southern NJ through 8am EST.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a shield of light precipitation from
   the Carolinas northward into the Delmarva as of 445am EST.  The
   precipitation is occurring on the northwestern periphery of a deep
   tropospheric moisture plume (according to water-vapor imagery) with
   origins emanating from the Gulf of Mexico/northwest Caribbean. 
   Model guidance indicates the spatial expansion and increase in
   precipitation rate over VA is primarily a result of strengthening
   frontogenesis in the 700-600 mb layer.  This band of frontogenetic
   ascent is co-located with surface temperatures in the 30-32 degree F
   range on the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield. 
   Forecast soundings show a warm layer near 850 mb atop a shallow
   sub-freezing layer near near the surface---supporting freezing rain
   as the precipitation type.  Precipitation rates will probably
   approach and perhaps locally exceed 0.05 inch per 3 hours through
   8am EST.

   ..Smith.. 02/19/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38757546 38127610 36517725 35997822 36027907 37197805
               38927629 39577446 38757546