Mesoscale Discussion 0122
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

   Areas affected...the eastern Florida Panhandle through southern
   Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 11...

   Valid 181843Z - 182015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 11 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of severe storms for the remaining
   portion of WW 11 including the eastern Florida Panhandle through
   southern GA will persist into the afternoon, but appears marginal.

   DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a band of mostly showers with a
   few embedded thunderstorms persists from the central FL Panhandle
   into southwest and south central GA and is associated with modest
   ascent along a 40 kt southwesterly low level jet. Destabilization of
   the boundary layer in this region has been slow and gradual due to
   anvil plumes spreading downstream. Moreover, mid-level lapse rates
   are very weak with an inversion evident between 700 and 500 mb.
   Trends in VWP data from Tallahassee show winds have veered to
   southwesterly in the lowest 2 km resulting in relatively small 0-1
   km hodographs in warm sector, but deep shear of 40-45 kt remains
   supportive of updraft rotation. Given the potential limiting factors
   in the thermodynamic and low-level kinematic environment as well as
   limited forcing for ascent through a deeper layer, overall threat
   appears somewhat marginal this afternoon, but a couple of severe
   storms cannot be ruled out.

   ..Dial.. 02/18/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29488457 30218419 31238378 31458270 30638290 29618380
               29488457