Mesoscale Discussion 0072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

   Areas affected...northern North Carolina...southern half of Virginia

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 130721Z - 131315Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to increase in coverage with
   precipitation rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours, especially over
   northern North Carolina and far southern Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic tonight shows a shield of light
   precipitation from the western Carolinas northeast into southern
   Virginia.  Surface observations over northern North Carolina have
   indicated mainly light freezing rain rates.  Weak warm advection
   within a layer of above-freezing air is contributing to lift
   supporting precipitation into a sub-freezing surface layer.  A
   gradual increase in freezing rain, both in coverage and rates, is
   expected especially towards the early morning hours.  Both SREF and
   HREF model guidance indicate a northward progression of
   precipitation later tonight into the early morning.  Model forecast
   soundings suggest columnar saturation over the northern and western
   fringe of the discussion area over the next few hours.  This
   expansion in precipitation will translate to freezing rain
   developing from the greater Blacksburg vicinity, eastward into
   central portions of Virginia, during the 5am-8am EST period.

   ..Smith.. 02/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36178171 37038135 37698024 37837727 37727657 37357643
               36597698 35967793 35737880 35738021 36038163 36178171