Mesoscale Discussion 0069
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

   Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...northwest Mississippi through
   western Tennessee

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 111002Z - 111500Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain will continue through eastern
   Arkansas, west Tennessee and northwest Mississippi through the early
   morning hours before gradually diminishing after 14Z. Rainfall rates
   occasionally from 0.05 to 0.1 inch per hour remain likely.

   DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent and low-level theta-e advection above
   a cold, stable surface layer associated with the leading edge of
   arctic air will maintain areas of scattered showers and
   thunderstorms early this morning. RAP analysis indicates MUCAPE from
   200-400 J/kg in the convective layer where 6.5-7 C/km mid-level
   lapse rates exist. Surface temperatures are generally in the upper
   20s to around 30F. The low-level jet will maintain a large melting
   layer aloft, likely resulting in freezing rain as the dominant
   precipitation type for the duration of the event. Rates will
   occasionally reach 0.1 inch per hour within the deeper convective
   elements. A weak, progressive mid-level impulse and the accompanying
   low-level jet will continue east of this region through the morning.
   This should result in a gradual decrease in precipitation after 14Z.

   ..Dial.. 02/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36009038 36368872 36338769 35798772 35098917 34039065
               33809262 35069238 36009038