Mesoscale Discussion 0046
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

   Areas affected...far southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302301Z - 310000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado risk will likely remain confined to developing
   warm-sector supercells in far southwest MO during the next 30-90
   minutes.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface mesoanalysis indicates surface flow has
   backed from south-southwesterly to southerly in Stone County per an
   observation site.  Equally important, surface conditions show a
   temperature and dewpoint at 55 deg F.  The cold pocket aloft
   associated with the migratory mid-level shortwave trough has
   resulted in 500 mb temperatures around -22.5 deg C.  In summary,
   adequate buoyancy 500 J/kg MLCAPE is co-located with strong
   low-level shear.  RAP forecast soundings estimate around 225 m2/s2
   0-500m SRH.  Given this seemingly focused thermodynamic/kinematic
   environment, it seems plausible any supercell with a relatively
   undisturbed inflow to the south will be capable of cyclic
   mesocyclones with an accompanying threat for a weak tornado or two.

   ..Smith.. 01/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36749393 36849312 36699295 36599291 36559387 36749393