Mesoscale Discussion 0040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

   Areas affected...Northern FL into far southeast GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271904Z - 272100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado
   continues this afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely due to the
   isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...At 19Z, the thunderstorm cluster which earlier produced
   a tornado in the Tallahassee area is moving eastward along the I-10
   corridor in northern FL. This cluster has weakened slightly compared
   to 1-2 hours ago, as it has moved into a slightly cooler and less
   unstable airmass. However, effective shear of 40-50 kt remains more
   than sufficient to support occasional upticks in convective
   organization, and this cluster will continue to pose a threat of
   isolated damaging wind and perhaps a tornado as it moves eastward
   this afternoon and interacts with a surface boundary that is slowly
   sagging southward out of far southern GA. Surface observations
   indicate that slightly greater warming/destabilization has occurred
   across northeast FL, which could support some severe threat to the
   coast as the cluster continues eastward. However, given the
   localized and generally marginal nature of the threat, watch
   issuance remains unlikely.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 01/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30608294 30728259 30848183 30868153 30638147 30478142
               30218138 30138234 30108284 30198299 30408307 30608294