Mesoscale Discussion 0038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern
   GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271350Z - 271545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may exist this morning, with
   strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Watch
   issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A low-topped supercell over the central FL Panhandle
   has shown signs of low-level rotation over the 30 minutes or so.
   Modest low-level warm advection is aiding convective development
   across this area along/south of a surface boundary, which is draped
   generally east-west across the FL Panhandle and into southern GA.
   Although the latest VWP from KTLH shows winds generally veered to
   southwesterly in the 0-1 km layer, there is strengthening with
   height to around 30 kt at 1 km. Low-level shear may also be modestly
   enhanced near the surface boundary, where 100-150 m2/s2 of effective
   SRH is present per mesoanalysis estimates. Given the low-level
   rotation already observed in the supercell along the boundary, a
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated strong/gusty winds may
   also occur. The 12Z sounding from TLH showed poor low-level lapse
   rates and limited boundary-layer instability. This should tend to
   limit the overall severe threat, and a watch is not currently
   expected.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 01/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30448582 30948511 31158450 31208394 30978370 30628400
               30448441 30218501 30128558 30448582