Mesoscale Discussion 0033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

   Areas affected...Northern/Central Mississippi...Western/Middle
   Tennessee...Northwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252249Z - 260015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the
   Mid-South into Middle TN this evening. Some risk for tornadoes may
   necessitate a watch in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across
   the central Plains this evening. The more appreciable height falls
   will spread across the Mid-MS into the OH Valley region. Along the
   southern fringe of this stronger large-scale forcing, robust
   convection has recently developed across portions of western TN
   where surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s with surface
   temperatures in the lower 70s. This activity should spread
   east-northeast along a corridor that is destabilizing just south of
   a well-defined warm front. Ample shear/buoyancy exist for supercells
   (possibly tornadic supercell ongoing over Fayette County TN) and
   there is increasing concern/confidence that other organized
   longer-lived storms may develop.

   Farther south along the Pacific front, showers are gradually
   deepening from northwest MS into northeast LA. Some lightning is
   noted with the stronger updrafts but activity has struggled to
   organize. It's not entirely clear how many organized supercells
   can/will develop along this zone, but shear/buoyancy do favor some
   tornado threat. Tornado watch may be warranted for this activity in
   the next couple of hours.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33159055 35478893 35888710 35008651 33568819 32718919
               33159055